Timing Is Everything:

Intra-Year Real Estate Cycles in King County (2012–2025)

If you’ve spent any time following King County’s housing market, you know that timing can make all the difference. Over the past 14 years, a clear and consistent pattern has emerged: the time of year you buy or sell can shift your bottom line by tens of thousands of dollars.

I’ve tracked median price per square foot from 2012 through 2025, comparing January sales to May sales (December and April negotiations). The results reveal a striking trend: on average, King County homes appreciate 17% between December and April. For buyers, that means waiting until spring can cost significantly more. For sellers, it underscores why listing in the early part of the year often yields the strongest results.

For Sellers: The Winter/Early Spring Advantage

In King County, the market traditionally heats up just after the new year. By late February through early April, buyer demand surges, inventory is still relatively tight and competition is strongest for the year.

That demand translates directly into higher returns. Sellers who bring their homes to market during this peak window routinely secure premium pricing. Listing later, especially from mid-summer into the fall, typically means leaving money on the table. Waiting until August through December can be especially costly, as buyer urgency drops off and homes tend to linger.

In simple terms: If you want top dollar, late winter/early spring is your season.

For Buyers: Winter Brings Opportunity

While sellers thrive in winter/early spring, buyers find their best leverage in fall. The numbers are clear: purchasing in November/December, before the winter/early spring rush, can save an average of 17% when compared to April pricing.

This seasonal dip isn’t about quality, it’s about competition. With excess left-over summer inventory in the fall, sellers are more willing to negotiate, price reductions are more common and homes often stay on the market longer. Buyers who can act decisively in the quieter months are well-positioned to secure better terms, lower prices and reduced competition.

The Bottom Line

Real estate in King County has its rhythms, and those rhythms matter. Sellers who align their timing with the peak winter/early spring market maximize their return on investment. Buyers who are willing to move in the fall can capture significant savings and negotiate from a position of strength.

From 2012 through 2025, the data has told the same story: timing is not just important, it’s profitable. Whether you’re preparing to sell or searching for your next home, understanding these intra-year cycles can help you make smarter, more strategic decisions.

King County Market Snapshot | September 18, 2025

The King County housing market is showing signs of a steadier, more deliberate pace as we move into fall. In the past week, 465 new listings came to market while 373 homes went pending. Inventory remains at 2.1 months of supply, still leaning toward sellers, but offering buyers more opportunity than the past winter/spring months.

Market Tempo | First Impressions Matter

Among sellers, 31% set offer review dates in hopes of receiving multiple offers. Of homes listed between August 31^st - September 6^th, 34% received offers within the first 7 days. Looking back to August 17^th – 30^th, 39% of homes went pending within the first two weeks. Still, timelines are stretching: the median days on market has risen to 18, with an average of 33 days, underscoring the importance of pricing and presentation.

Buyer Behavior | Cautious, Selective and Strategic

Competition is no longer the norm. Between September 7^th and the 13^th, just 28% of homes with accepted offers experienced multiple offers, meaning 72% of buyers faced no competition at all. Inspection contingencies were included in 41% of offers, while financing contingencies appeared in 66%, a clear signal that buyers are negotiating from more of a position of confidence.

Pricing Outcomes | Strategy Over Speculation

In the past 30 days, only 25% of homes sold over list price. Of those, 7% sold more than 5% above asking, 3% exceeded 10%, and just 1% reached premiums of 15% or more. Meanwhile the majority, 54% of homes sold below list price. On average, listings in August drew just 6.6 showings each, making strong marketing and accurate pricing essential.

The Takeaway | King County Market

Mortgage rates have dropped more than three-quarters of a point since May 2025, and with the Fed’s recent quarter-point cut and clear signals of additional reductions later this year and into next, buyers should be taking note. Lower borrowing costs should bring renewed energy to the market this fall.

If demand strengthens, we may finally see inventory start to tighten instead of continuing to climb. For now, King County remains a market that rewards precision. Sellers who price strategically and present a move-in ready home are still attracting strong early offers. Buyers, meanwhile, continue to hold leverage, most are purchasing without competition and with inspection and financing contingencies in place.

As we move into fall, both buyers and sellers have opportunity. The key will be preparation, smart strategy, and timing.

As always, thank you for taking the time to read this version of Stats by Kat. Please feel free to reach out. I value your questions and comments! And don’t forget to follow me on Social Media (links are below), as the most up to date information on our real estate market will also be covered in my most recent videos. And check out a variety of playlists on my YouTube Channel.

Tips for Sellers & Buyers

Since I’ve started creating content in 2023, I’ve put together several hundred videos to help Buyers and Sellers navigate our local real estate market. Here are a couple of the more popular Playlists:

Real Estate Tips for Sellers

Real Estate Tips for Buyers

Katherine Howard | Broker
Windermere Real Estate/HLC
13901 NE 175th Street | Suite 100
Woodinville, WA 98072

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